Dragón 0–1 Águila: Result & Stats

Dragón

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Águila

3/10/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 10Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dragón33%

×Draw28%

Águila39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DragónExpected goals in this matchÁguila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.23

Dragón

1.10

Águila

1.23

Águila creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 153 away

1.29

creates per match

1.11

1.34

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Dragón

1.29

Águila

1.11

allows per match

Dragón

1.34

Águila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dragón+0.00on par

Águila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragón ↓

Águila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dragón or draw

61%

Dragón or Águila

72%

Draw or Águila

67%

Winning margin

Dragón wins by 2+

13%

Águila wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dragón 1+ goals

67%

Dragón 2+ goals

30%

Dragón 3+ goals

10%

Águila 1+ goals

71%

Águila 2+ goals

35%

Águila 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dragón (draw refunded)

46%

Águila (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragón at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

Águila away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragón attack 1.29 + Águila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Águila attack 1.11 + Dragón defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dragón scores more

33%

level

28%

Águila scores more

39%

Águila at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff