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DPMM FC Brunei vs Geylang International — Premier League 2019

DPMM FC Brunei
DPMM FC Brunei
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Geylang International
Geylang International
3/9/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadium Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah (Bandar Seri Begawan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

DPMM FC Brunei44%
×Draw22%
Geylang International34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DPMM FC Brunei
1.92
Geylang International
1.67

DPMM FC Brunei creates 15% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 81 away

creates per match

DPMM FC Brunei
1.90
Geylang International
1.78

allows per match

DPMM FC Brunei
1.56
Geylang International
1.93

finishing

DPMM FC Brunei+0.00on par
Geylang International+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DPMM FC Brunei ↓

Geylang International →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

DPMM FC Brunei or draw
66%
DPMM FC Brunei or Geylang International
78%
Draw or Geylang International
56%

Winning margin

DPMM FC Brunei wins by 2+
24%
Geylang International wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

DPMM FC Brunei 1+ goals
85%
DPMM FC Brunei 2+ goals
57%
DPMM FC Brunei 3+ goals
30%
Geylang International 1+ goals
81%
Geylang International 2+ goals
50%
Geylang International 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

DPMM FC Brunei (draw refunded)
56%
Geylang International (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DPMM FC Brunei at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Geylang International away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.93 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DPMM FC Brunei attack 1.90 + Geylang International defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.92

Geylang International attack 1.78 + DPMM FC Brunei defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

DPMM FC Brunei scores more
44%
level
22%
Geylang International scores more
34%

DPMM FC Brunei at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "DPMM FC Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: DPMM FC Brunei 3–0 Geylang International

DPMM FC Brunei beat Geylang International 3-0 in Premier League on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah (Bandar Seri Begawan).