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DPMM FC Brunei vs Balestier Khalsa — Premier League 2019

DPMM FC Brunei
DPMM FC Brunei
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Balestier Khalsa
Balestier Khalsa
6/28/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Stadium Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah (Bandar Seri Begawan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

DPMM FC Brunei48%
×Draw21%
Balestier Khalsa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DPMM FC Brunei
2.17
Balestier Khalsa
1.72

DPMM FC Brunei creates 26% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 82 away

creates per match

DPMM FC Brunei
1.90
Balestier Khalsa
1.88

allows per match

DPMM FC Brunei
1.56
Balestier Khalsa
2.44

finishing

DPMM FC Brunei+0.00on par
Balestier Khalsa+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DPMM FC Brunei ↓

Balestier Khalsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

DPMM FC Brunei or draw
69%
DPMM FC Brunei or Balestier Khalsa
79%
Draw or Balestier Khalsa
52%

Winning margin

DPMM FC Brunei wins by 2+
28%
Balestier Khalsa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

DPMM FC Brunei 1+ goals
89%
DPMM FC Brunei 2+ goals
64%
DPMM FC Brunei 3+ goals
36%
Balestier Khalsa 1+ goals
82%
Balestier Khalsa 2+ goals
51%
Balestier Khalsa 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

DPMM FC Brunei (draw refunded)
61%
Balestier Khalsa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DPMM FC Brunei at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Balestier Khalsa away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DPMM FC Brunei attack 1.90 + Balestier Khalsa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.17

Balestier Khalsa attack 1.88 + DPMM FC Brunei defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

DPMM FC Brunei scores more
48%
level
21%
Balestier Khalsa scores more
31%

DPMM FC Brunei at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "DPMM FC Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DPMM FC Brunei vs Balestier Khalsa

DPMM FC Brunei beat Balestier Khalsa 2-1 in Premier League on June 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah (Bandar Seri Begawan).