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Dovo vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Dovo
Dovo
FT
7 – 5
VVOG
VVOG
9/7/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 3Sportpark Panhuis (DOVO) (Veenendaal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Dovo56%
×Draw21%
VVOG23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dovo
2.17
VVOG
1.34

Dovo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 46 away

creates per match

Dovo
1.93
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

Dovo
1.33
VVOG
2.41

finishing

Dovo+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dovo ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dovo or draw
77%
Dovo or VVOG
79%
Draw or VVOG
44%

Winning margin

Dovo wins by 2+
34%
VVOG wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dovo 1+ goals
89%
Dovo 2+ goals
64%
Dovo 3+ goals
36%
VVOG 1+ goals
74%
VVOG 2+ goals
39%
VVOG 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dovo (draw refunded)
71%
VVOG (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dovo at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.33 · 99 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dovo attack 1.93 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.17

VVOG attack 1.35 + Dovo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dovo scores more
56%
level
21%
VVOG scores more
23%

Dovo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Dovo 7–5 VVOG

Dovo beat VVOG 7-5 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Panhuis (DOVO) (Veenendaal).