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Dover vs Tonbridge Angels — League #51 2026

Dover
Dover
Preview
18:45
Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels
8/18/2026League #51League #51 · National League South - 3
68%
Tonbridge Angels
model favours
14%18%68%

Dover sit 18, Tonbridge Angels 5 in the table

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dover14%
×Draw18%
Tonbridge Angels68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dover
1.00
Tonbridge Angels
2.38

Tonbridge Angels creates 138% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dover
1.00
Tonbridge Angels
2.50

allows per match

Dover
2.25
Tonbridge Angels
1.00

finishing

Dover+0.00on par
Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dover ↓

Tonbridge Angels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dover or draw
32%
Dover or Tonbridge Angels
82%
Draw or Tonbridge Angels
86%

Winning margin

Dover wins by 2+
5%
Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Dover 1+ goals
63%
Dover 2+ goals
26%
Dover 3+ goals
8%
Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals
91%
Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals
68%
Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Dover (draw refunded)
18%
Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dover at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Tonbridge Angels away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dover attack 1.00 + Tonbridge Angels defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tonbridge Angels attack 2.50 + Dover defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dover scores more
14%
level
18%
Tonbridge Angels scores more
68%

Tonbridge Angels at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dover and Tonbridge Angels have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dover
WLWL
Angels
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dover face Tonbridge Angels (League #51)

League #51 returns with Dover hosting Tonbridge Angels. Match starts August 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.