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Douglas Haig vs Union Sunchales — Torneo Federal A 2018

Douglas Haig
Douglas Haig
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Sunchales
Union Sunchales
9/30/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 5Estadio Miguel Morales (Pergamino, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Douglas Haig54%
×Draw27%
Union Sunchales20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douglas Haig
1.46
Union Sunchales
0.77

Douglas Haig creates 90% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 85 away

creates per match

Douglas Haig
1.27
Union Sunchales
0.78

allows per match

Douglas Haig
0.76
Union Sunchales
1.65

finishing

Douglas Haig+0.00on par
Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douglas Haig ↓

Union Sunchales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Douglas Haig or draw
80%
Douglas Haig or Union Sunchales
73%
Draw or Union Sunchales
46%

Winning margin

Douglas Haig wins by 2+
27%
Union Sunchales wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Douglas Haig 1+ goals
77%
Douglas Haig 2+ goals
43%
Douglas Haig 3+ goals
18%
Union Sunchales 1+ goals
54%
Union Sunchales 2+ goals
18%
Union Sunchales 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Douglas Haig (draw refunded)
73%
Union Sunchales (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douglas Haig at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 116 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douglas Haig attack 1.27 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Douglas Haig defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Douglas Haig scores more
54%
level
27%
Union Sunchales scores more
20%

Douglas Haig at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Douglas Haig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Douglas Haig 1 – 1 Union Sunchales

Douglas Haig and Union Sunchales drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Morales (Pergamino, Provincia de Buenos Aires).