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Douglas Haig vs 9 de Julio Rafaela — Torneo Federal A 2018

Douglas Haig
Douglas Haig
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
9 de Julio Rafaela
9 de Julio Rafaela
3/23/2024Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 3 - 1Estadio Miguel Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Douglas Haig51%
×Draw29%
9 de Julio Rafaela21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douglas Haig
1.32
9 de Julio Rafaela
0.73

Douglas Haig creates 81% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 53 away

creates per match

Douglas Haig
1.27
9 de Julio Rafaela
0.70

allows per match

Douglas Haig
0.76
9 de Julio Rafaela
1.38

finishing

Douglas Haig+0.00on par
9 de Julio Rafaela+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douglas Haig ↓

9 de Julio Rafaela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Douglas Haig or draw
79%
Douglas Haig or 9 de Julio Rafaela
71%
Draw or 9 de Julio Rafaela
49%

Winning margin

Douglas Haig wins by 2+
24%
9 de Julio Rafaela wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Douglas Haig 1+ goals
73%
Douglas Haig 2+ goals
38%
Douglas Haig 3+ goals
15%
9 de Julio Rafaela 1+ goals
52%
9 de Julio Rafaela 2+ goals
17%
9 de Julio Rafaela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Douglas Haig (draw refunded)
71%
9 de Julio Rafaela (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douglas Haig at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 116 matches

9 de Julio Rafaela away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douglas Haig attack 1.27 + 9 de Julio Rafaela defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

9 de Julio Rafaela attack 0.70 + Douglas Haig defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Douglas Haig scores more
51%
level
29%
9 de Julio Rafaela scores more
21%

Douglas Haig at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Douglas Haig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Douglas Haig vs 9 de Julio Rafaela

Douglas Haig and 9 de Julio Rafaela drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Morales in Pergamino, Provincia de Buenos Aires.