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Doubravka vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Doubravka
Doubravka
FT
1 – 3
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
9/25/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Doubravka56%
×Draw20%
Otava Katovice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doubravka
2.29
Otava Katovice
1.45

Doubravka creates 58% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 56 away

creates per match

Doubravka
2.28
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Doubravka
1.55
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Doubravka+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doubravka ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Doubravka or draw
76%
Doubravka or Otava Katovice
80%
Draw or Otava Katovice
44%

Winning margin

Doubravka wins by 2+
35%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Doubravka 1+ goals
90%
Doubravka 2+ goals
66%
Doubravka 3+ goals
40%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
77%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
42%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Doubravka (draw refunded)
70%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doubravka at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.55 · 83 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doubravka attack 2.28 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.29

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Doubravka defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Doubravka scores more
56%
level
20%
Otava Katovice scores more
24%

Doubravka at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Doubravka 1–3 Otava Katovice

Otava Katovice beat Doubravka 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Sportovni areal v Chrastecke ulice in Plzeň.