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Douanes vs CNEPS Excellence — Ligue 1 2019

Douanes
Douanes
FT
3 – 2
CNEPS Excellence
CNEPS Excellence
1/2/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Municipal De Ndiarème

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Douanes45%
×Draw31%
CNEPS Excellence24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Douanes
1.16
CNEPS Excellence
0.77

Douanes creates 51% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Douanes
0.83
CNEPS Excellence
0.56

allows per match

Douanes
0.98
CNEPS Excellence
1.49

finishing

Douanes+0.00on par
CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Douanes ↓

CNEPS Excellence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Douanes or draw
76%
Douanes or CNEPS Excellence
69%
Draw or CNEPS Excellence
55%

Winning margin

Douanes wins by 2+
19%
CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Douanes 1+ goals
69%
Douanes 2+ goals
32%
Douanes 3+ goals
11%
CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals
54%
CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals
18%
CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Douanes (draw refunded)
65%
CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Douanes at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Douanes attack 0.83 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + Douanes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Douanes scores more
45%
level
31%
CNEPS Excellence scores more
24%

Douanes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Douanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Douanes 3–2 CNEPS Excellence

Douanes beat CNEPS Excellence 3-2 in Ligue 1 on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De Ndiarème in Dakar.