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Dorostol vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dorostol
Dorostol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
11/11/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 14Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dorostol49%
×Draw23%
Ustrem Donchevo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorostol
1.84
Ustrem Donchevo
1.36

Dorostol creates 35% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 105 away

creates per match

Dorostol
1.06
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Dorostol
1.49
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw
71%
Dorostol or Ustrem Donchevo
77%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
51%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+
27%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals
84%
Dorostol 2+ goals
55%
Dorostol 3+ goals
28%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
74%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
39%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)
63%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dorostol scores more
49%
level
23%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
29%

Dorostol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dorostol 2 – 0 Ustrem Donchevo

Dorostol beat Ustrem Donchevo 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Louis Eyer in Silistra.