Dorostol 4–0 Sportist G.Toshevo: Result & Stats

Dorostol

FT

4 – 0

Sportist G.Toshevo

5/15/2021

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 28Stadion Louis Eyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Dorostol68%

×Draw17%

Sportist G.Toshevo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DorostolExpected goals in this matchSportist G.Toshevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.12

Dorostol

2.59

Sportist G.Toshevo

1.12

Dorostol creates 131% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 40 away

1.06

creates per match

0.75

1.49

allows per match

4.13

creates per match

Dorostol

1.06

Sportist G.Toshevo

0.75

allows per match

Dorostol

1.49

Sportist G.Toshevo

4.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorostol+0.00on par

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorostol ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dorostol or draw

85%

Dorostol or Sportist G.Toshevo

83%

Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo

32%

Winning margin

Dorostol wins by 2+

47%

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dorostol 1+ goals

92%

Dorostol 2+ goals

73%

Dorostol 3+ goals

47%

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals

67%

Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals

31%

Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dorostol (draw refunded)

82%

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorostol at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 84 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorostol attack 1.06 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.59

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Dorostol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dorostol scores more

68%

level

17%

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more

15%

Dorostol at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff