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Dorking Wanderers vs Hampton & Richmond — League #51 2026

Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers
Preview
14:00
Hampton & Richmond
Hampton & Richmond
10/17/2026League #51League #51 · National League South - 12Meadowbank
62%
Dorking Wanderers
model favours
62%20%19%

Dorking Wanderers and Hampton & Richmond have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dorking Wanderers62%
×Draw20%
Hampton & Richmond19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorking Wanderers
2.27
Hampton & Richmond
1.18

Dorking Wanderers creates 92% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dorking Wanderers
2.80
Hampton & Richmond
0.75

allows per match

Dorking Wanderers
1.60
Hampton & Richmond
1.75

finishing

Dorking Wanderers+0.00on par
Hampton & Richmond+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorking Wanderers ↓

Hampton & Richmond →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dorking Wanderers or draw
81%
Dorking Wanderers or Hampton & Richmond
80%
Draw or Hampton & Richmond
38%

Winning margin

Dorking Wanderers wins by 2+
39%
Hampton & Richmond wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dorking Wanderers 1+ goals
90%
Dorking Wanderers 2+ goals
66%
Dorking Wanderers 3+ goals
39%
Hampton & Richmond 1+ goals
69%
Hampton & Richmond 2+ goals
33%
Hampton & Richmond 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dorking Wanderers (draw refunded)
77%
Hampton & Richmond (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorking Wanderers at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Hampton & Richmond away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorking Wanderers attack 2.80 + Hampton & Richmond defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.27

Hampton & Richmond attack 0.75 + Dorking Wanderers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dorking Wanderers scores more
62%
level
20%
Hampton & Richmond scores more
19%

Dorking Wanderers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dorking Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Wanderers
LWLWW
Richmond
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dorking Wanderers host Hampton & Richmond

October 17, 2026: Dorking Wanderers take on Hampton & Richmond in League #51. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dorking Wanderers host Hampton & Richmond at Meadowbank.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.