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Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Dordrecht
Dordrecht
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
4/7/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32Matchoholic Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Dordrecht44%
×Draw23%
Jong PSV U2134%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dordrecht
1.81
Jong PSV U21
1.56

Dordrecht creates 16% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 149 away

creates per match

Dordrecht
1.55
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

Dordrecht
1.59
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

Dordrecht+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw
66%
Dordrecht or Jong PSV U21
77%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
56%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+
23%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals
84%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
54%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
27%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
79%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
46%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)
57%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.55 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Dordrecht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dordrecht scores more
44%
level
23%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
34%

Dordrecht at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Dordrecht 1–0 Jong PSV U21

Dordrecht beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Matchoholic Stadion in Dordrecht.