Dorados 0–1 Monarcas: Result & Stats

Dorados

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Monarcas

J. Flores 63'

3/27/2023

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Dorados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dorados43%

×Draw26%

Monarcas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoradosExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.17

Dorados

1.42

Monarcas

1.17

Dorados creates 21% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 108 away

1.43

creates per match

1.11

1.22

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Dorados

1.43

Monarcas

1.11

allows per match

Dorados

1.22

Monarcas

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dorados or draw

69%

Dorados or Monarcas

74%

Draw or Monarcas

57%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+

20%

Monarcas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals

76%

Dorados 2+ goals

41%

Dorados 3+ goals

17%

Monarcas 1+ goals

69%

Monarcas 2+ goals

33%

Monarcas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)

58%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.43 + Monarcas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Monarcas attack 1.11 + Dorados defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dorados scores more

43%

level

26%

Monarcas scores more

31%

Dorados at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

G. Vázquez← A. Galindo

46'

D. Osuna← A. Valenzuela

46'

D. Navarrete← D. Parra

47'

L. J. Gamiz Avila

55'

O. Tirado Jimenez

62'

J. Flores← L. Pérez

62'

J. Uchuari← K. Hernández

63'

J. Flores

65'

R. Hernández← A. Nava

65'

Christian Castillo← L. Gamíz

75'

B. Mendoza

80'

J. Ramírez← K. Calderón Buitrago

83'

83'

90+1'

90+3'

90+5'

90+5'

Dorados

Monarcas

12

Ramírez

4

Ledesma

22

▼

Parra

14

Trejo

6

▼

Pérez

5

Milke

8

▼

Ibarra

16

Torres

30

▼

Mendoza

7

Islas

26

▼

13

33

4

14

34

8

9

▼

Nava

6

▼

Gamíz

7

▼

Galindo

31

▼

Valenzuel

11

▼

Buitrago

Manager: Rafael García

46'▲G. Vázquez←▼A. Galindo

46'▲D. Osuna←▼A. Valenzuela

65'▲R. Hernández←▼A. Nava

65'▲Christian Castillo←▼L. Gamíz

80'▲J. Ramírez←▼K. Calderón Buitrago

Dorados substitutes

10Vázquez20Osuna21Hernández150Castillo15Ramírez5Meza17Castillo30Hernández32Herrera35Villegas

Manager: C. Morales

46'▲D. Navarrete←▼D. Parra

62'▲J. Flores←▼L. Pérez

62'▲J. Uchuari←▼K. Hernández

83'▲W. Mejía←▼B. Mendoza

83'▲J. Ruiz←▼J. Ibarra

Monarcas substitutes

25Navarrete19Flores28Uchuari17Mejía35Ruiz11Cardona15Quezada20Barajas23Castellanos34Sorrentino

Liga de Expansión MX: Dorados 0–1 Monarcas

Monarcas beat Dorados 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 27, 2023.

Goals: J. Flores (63').

The match was played at Estadio Dorados in Culiacán.

Dorados vs Monarcas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga de Expansión MX: Dorados 0–1 Monarcas