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Dorados vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Dorados
Dorados
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Celaya
Celaya
1/6/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Banorte (Culiacán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Dorados38%
×Draw27%
Celaya34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorados
1.27
Celaya
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 119 away

creates per match

Dorados
1.41
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

Dorados
1.23
Celaya
1.13

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dorados or draw
66%
Dorados or Celaya
73%
Draw or Celaya
62%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+
17%
Celaya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals
72%
Dorados 2+ goals
36%
Dorados 3+ goals
14%
Celaya 1+ goals
70%
Celaya 2+ goals
33%
Celaya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)
53%
Celaya (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Celaya attack 1.15 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dorados scores more
38%
level
27%
Celaya scores more
34%

Dorados at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Dorados 0–1 Celaya

Celaya beat Dorados 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Banorte (Culiacán).