Dongen 3–0 Westlandia: Result & Stats

Dongen

FT

3 – 0

Westlandia

12/8/2019

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 15Sportpark De Biezen (Dongen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dongen52%

×Draw22%

Westlandia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DongenExpected goals in this matchWestlandia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.29

Dongen

1.93

Westlandia

1.29

Dongen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 32 away

1.60

creates per match

1.09

1.49

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Dongen

1.60

Westlandia

1.09

allows per match

Dongen

1.49

Westlandia

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dongen+0.00on par

Westlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dongen ↓

Westlandia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dongen or draw

74%

Dongen or Westlandia

78%

Draw or Westlandia

48%

Winning margin

Dongen wins by 2+

30%

Westlandia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dongen 1+ goals

85%

Dongen 2+ goals

57%

Dongen 3+ goals

30%

Westlandia 1+ goals

72%

Westlandia 2+ goals

37%

Westlandia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dongen (draw refunded)

67%

Westlandia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dongen at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.49 · 47 matches

Westlandia away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dongen attack 1.60 + Westlandia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Westlandia attack 1.09 + Dongen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dongen scores more

52%

level

22%

Westlandia scores more

26%

Dongen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dongen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff