Doncaster 3–1 Walsall: Result & Stats | League One

Doncaster

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Walsall

3/30/2019

League One · Round 40Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Doncaster46%

×Draw27%

Walsall27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.03

Doncaster

1.44

Walsall

1.03

Doncaster creates 40% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 23 away

1.40

creates per match

0.83

1.23

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Doncaster

1.40

Walsall

0.83

allows per match

Doncaster

1.23

Walsall

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

73%

Doncaster or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

54%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

23%

Walsall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

76%

Doncaster 2+ goals

42%

Doncaster 3+ goals

18%

Walsall 1+ goals

64%

Walsall 2+ goals

28%

Walsall 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

63%

Walsall (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Walsall away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Walsall defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Walsall attack 0.83 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Doncaster scores more

46%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

27%

Doncaster at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff