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Doncaster vs Tranmere — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
CANC
14:00
Tranmere
Tranmere
4/4/2020League OneLeague One · Round 41The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Doncaster51%
×Draw24%
Tranmere25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.70
Tranmere
1.11

Doncaster creates 53% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Tranmere
1.00

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Tranmere
2.00

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
75%
Doncaster or Tranmere
76%
Draw or Tranmere
49%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
28%
Tranmere wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
82%
Doncaster 2+ goals
51%
Doncaster 3+ goals
24%
Tranmere 1+ goals
67%
Tranmere 2+ goals
30%
Tranmere 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
67%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Tranmere defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Tranmere attack 1.00 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Doncaster scores more
51%
level
24%
Tranmere scores more
25%

Doncaster at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Doncaster host Tranmere

April 4, 2020: Doncaster take on Tranmere in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Doncaster host Tranmere at The Keepmoat Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.