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Doncaster vs Plymouth — League One 2025

Doncaster
Doncaster
Preview
14:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
9/5/2026League OneLeague One · Round 5Eco-Power Stadium
40%
Plymouth
model favours
36%24%40%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Doncaster36%
×Draw24%
Plymouth40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.51
Plymouth
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.95
Plymouth
2.17

allows per match

Doncaster
1.04
Plymouth
1.07

finishing

Doncaster-0.45scores less
Plymouth-0.67scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
60%
Doncaster or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
64%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
17%
Plymouth wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
78%
Doncaster 2+ goals
44%
Doncaster 3+ goals
19%
Plymouth 1+ goals
80%
Plymouth 2+ goals
47%
Plymouth 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
47%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 10 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.07 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.95 + Plymouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.51

Plymouth attack 2.17 + Doncaster defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Doncaster scores more
36%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
40%

Plymouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 13 games running
  • Plymouth have won 3 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 27% of matches
  • Doncaster win just 17% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Doncaster play Defensively solid, Plymouth Attack-heavy
  • Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Doncaster
Defensively solid
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
50%Possession47%
70%Pass accuracy66%
12.3Shots14.2
1.93xGBiggest gap2.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DoncasterPlymouth

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Doncaster
WWWDL
Plymouth
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Doncaster vs Plymouth — Match Preview

Doncaster face Plymouth on September 5, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Doncaster host Plymouth at Eco-Power Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.