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Doncaster vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Oxford United
Oxford United
12/22/2018League OneLeague One · Round 23Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Doncaster40%
×Draw26%
Oxford United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.40
Oxford United
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 137 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Oxford United
1.36

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Oxford United
1.39

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
65%
Doncaster or Oxford United
74%
Draw or Oxford United
60%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
18%
Oxford United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
75%
Doncaster 2+ goals
41%
Doncaster 3+ goals
17%
Oxford United 1+ goals
72%
Oxford United 2+ goals
37%
Oxford United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
53%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Doncaster scores more
40%
level
26%
Oxford United scores more
35%

Doncaster at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Doncaster 2–2 Oxford United

Doncaster and Oxford United drew 2-2 in League One on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster.