Doncaster 1–2 Charlton: Result & Stats | League One

Doncaster

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Charlton

5/12/2019

League One · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsKeepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Doncaster39%

×Draw27%

Charlton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.23

Doncaster

1.31

Charlton

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 140 away

1.40

creates per match

1.24

1.23

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Doncaster

1.40

Charlton

1.24

allows per match

Doncaster

1.23

Charlton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

65%

Doncaster or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

61%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

17%

Charlton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

73%

Doncaster 2+ goals

38%

Doncaster 3+ goals

14%

Charlton 1+ goals

71%

Charlton 2+ goals

35%

Charlton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

53%

Charlton (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.23 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Charlton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Charlton attack 1.24 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Doncaster scores more

39%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

35%

Doncaster at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff