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Doncaster vs Burton Albion — League One 2025

Doncaster
Doncaster
Preview
14:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
10/10/2026League OneLeague One · Round 10Eco-Power Stadium
Big match
48%
Doncaster
model favours
48%23%29%

Burton Albion are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Doncaster48%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.75
Burton Albion
1.31

Doncaster creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.95
Burton Albion
1.57

allows per match

Doncaster
1.04
Burton Albion
1.55

finishing

Doncaster-0.45scores less
Burton Albion-0.24scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
71%
Doncaster or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
52%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
26%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
83%
Doncaster 2+ goals
52%
Doncaster 3+ goals
25%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
62%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 10 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.95 + Burton Albion defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.75

Burton Albion attack 1.57 + Doncaster defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Doncaster scores more
48%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
29%

Doncaster at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.9% end 0-0
  • Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Burton Albion fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Doncaster
Defensively solid
Burton Albion
Defensively solid
50%Possession46%
70%Pass accuracy63%
12.3Shots11.3
1.93xGBiggest gap1.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DoncasterBurton Albion

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Doncaster
1
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
2–11–12–12–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Doncaster
WWWDL
Albion
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Doncaster host Burton Albion

October 10, 2026: Doncaster take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Doncaster host Burton Albion at Eco-Power Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.