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Doncaster vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
11/2/2019League OneLeague One · Round 17The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Doncaster48%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.75
Burton Albion
1.31

Doncaster creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.95
Burton Albion
1.57

allows per match

Doncaster
1.04
Burton Albion
1.55

finishing

Doncaster-0.45scores less
Burton Albion-0.24scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
71%
Doncaster or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
52%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
26%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
83%
Doncaster 2+ goals
52%
Doncaster 3+ goals
25%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
73%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
38%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
62%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 10 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.95 + Burton Albion defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.75

Burton Albion attack 1.57 + Doncaster defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Doncaster scores more
48%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
29%

Doncaster at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doncaster vs Burton Albion

Doncaster and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in League One on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at The Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.