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Doncaster vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
9/17/2019League OneLeague One · Round 9The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Doncaster39%
×Draw27%
Blackpool34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.29
Blackpool
1.17

Doncaster creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 135 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Blackpool
1.11

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Blackpool
1.19

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
66%
Doncaster or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
61%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
18%
Blackpool wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
72%
Doncaster 2+ goals
37%
Doncaster 3+ goals
14%
Blackpool 1+ goals
69%
Blackpool 2+ goals
33%
Blackpool 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
54%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Blackpool defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Doncaster scores more
39%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
34%

Doncaster at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Doncaster 0–1 Blackpool

Blackpool beat Doncaster 1-0 in League One on September 17, 2019.

The match was played at The Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.