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Donau vs Gloggnitz — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Donau
Donau
Preview
18:00
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
11/8/2026Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 15
43%
Donau
model favours
43%21%35%

Donau win just 19% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Donau43%
×Draw21%
Gloggnitz35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau
2.02
Gloggnitz
1.81

Donau creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Donau
1.94
Gloggnitz
1.74

allows per match

Donau
1.88
Gloggnitz
2.10

finishing

Donau+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Donau or draw
65%
Donau or Gloggnitz
79%
Draw or Gloggnitz
57%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+
24%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals
87%
Donau 2+ goals
60%
Donau 3+ goals
33%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
84%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
54%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)
55%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.94 + Gloggnitz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.02

Gloggnitz attack 1.74 + Donau defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Donau scores more
43%
level
21%
Gloggnitz scores more
35%

Donau at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Donau sit 12, Gloggnitz 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Donau
LLLLL
Gloggnitz
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Donau host Gloggnitz

November 8, 2026: Donau take on Gloggnitz in Regionalliga - Ost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.