Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Don Bosco vs Maniema Union — Ligue 1 2019

Don Bosco
Don Bosco
FT
0 – 2
Maniema Union
Maniema Union
3/9/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 1Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Don Bosco30%
×Draw29%
Maniema Union40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Bosco
0.99
Maniema Union
1.19

Maniema Union creates 20% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 93 away

creates per match

Don Bosco
1.28
Maniema Union
1.42

allows per match

Don Bosco
0.96
Maniema Union
0.70

finishing

Don Bosco+0.00on par
Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Bosco ↓

Maniema Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Don Bosco or draw
60%
Don Bosco or Maniema Union
71%
Draw or Maniema Union
70%

Winning margin

Don Bosco wins by 2+
11%
Maniema Union wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Don Bosco 1+ goals
63%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
26%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
8%
Maniema Union 1+ goals
70%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
33%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Don Bosco (draw refunded)
43%
Maniema Union (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Bosco at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Bosco attack 1.28 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + Don Bosco defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Don Bosco scores more
30%
level
29%
Maniema Union scores more
40%

Maniema Union at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Bosco vs Maniema Union

Maniema Union beat Don Bosco 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.