Don Álvaro 0–0 Moralo: Result & Stats

Don Álvaro

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Moralo

11/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 12Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Don Álvaro35%

×Draw27%

Moralo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don ÁlvaroExpected goals in this matchMoralo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.32

Don Álvaro

1.25

Moralo

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 111 away

1.26

creates per match

1.39

1.26

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Don Álvaro

1.26

Moralo

1.39

allows per match

Don Álvaro

1.26

Moralo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Moralo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Álvaro ↓

Moralo →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Don Álvaro or draw

62%

Don Álvaro or Moralo

73%

Draw or Moralo

65%

Winning margin

Don Álvaro wins by 2+

15%

Moralo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Don Álvaro 1+ goals

71%

Don Álvaro 2+ goals

36%

Don Álvaro 3+ goals

13%

Moralo 1+ goals

73%

Moralo 2+ goals

38%

Moralo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)

48%

Moralo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Don Álvaro at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

Moralo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Don Álvaro attack 1.26 + Moralo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Moralo attack 1.39 + Don Álvaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Don Álvaro scores more

35%

level

27%

Moralo scores more

38%

Moralo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff