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Dodoma Jiji vs Fountain Gate — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
11/24/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 10Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dodoma Jiji46%
×Draw29%
Fountain Gate25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.28
Fountain Gate
0.86

Dodoma Jiji creates 49% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.01
Fountain Gate
0.87

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
0.85
Fountain Gate
1.55

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Fountain Gate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
75%
Dodoma Jiji or Fountain Gate
71%
Draw or Fountain Gate
54%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
21%
Fountain Gate wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
72%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
37%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
14%
Fountain Gate 1+ goals
58%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
21%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
65%
Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.85 · 91 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.01 + Fountain Gate defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fountain Gate attack 0.87 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
46%
level
29%
Fountain Gate scores more
25%

Dodoma Jiji at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Dodoma Jiji 1–2 Fountain Gate

Fountain Gate beat Dodoma Jiji 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.