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Dock Sud vs Villa San Carlos — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
0 – 0
Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos
3/1/2019Primera CPrimera C · Round 26Estadio de los Inmigrantes (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dock Sud40%
×Draw30%
Villa San Carlos30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.13
Villa San Carlos
0.93

Dock Sud creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Villa San Carlos
1.10

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Villa San Carlos
1.05

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Villa San Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
70%
Dock Sud or Villa San Carlos
70%
Draw or Villa San Carlos
60%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
17%
Villa San Carlos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
68%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
31%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
11%
Villa San Carlos 1+ goals
61%
Villa San Carlos 2+ goals
24%
Villa San Carlos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
57%
Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Villa San Carlos away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Villa San Carlos attack 1.10 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dock Sud scores more
40%
level
30%
Villa San Carlos scores more
30%

Dock Sud at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dock Sud vs Villa San Carlos

Dock Sud and Villa San Carlos drew 0-0 in Primera C on March 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires).