Dock Sud 2–0 San Miguel: Result & Stats | Primera C

Dock Sud

FT

2 – 0

San Miguel

8/7/2011

Primera C · Round 1Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dock Sud51%

×Draw28%

San Miguel21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchSan Miguel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.77

Dock Sud

1.36

San Miguel

0.77

Dock Sud creates 77% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 4 away

1.22

creates per match

0.75

0.79

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.22

San Miguel

0.75

allows per match

Dock Sud

0.79

San Miguel

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

San Miguel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

79%

Dock Sud or San Miguel

72%

Draw or San Miguel

49%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

25%

San Miguel wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

74%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

39%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

16%

San Miguel 1+ goals

54%

San Miguel 2+ goals

18%

San Miguel 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

71%

San Miguel (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.22 + San Miguel defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

San Miguel attack 0.75 + Dock Sud defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dock Sud scores more

51%

level

28%

San Miguel scores more

21%

Dock Sud at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff