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Dock Sud vs Liniers — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
Preview
20:00
Liniers
Liniers
7/25/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 27Estadio de los Inmigrantes
Big match
41%
Dock Sud
model favours
41%30%29%

Liniers score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Dock Sud41%
×Draw30%
Liniers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.14
Liniers
0.91

Dock Sud creates 25% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.18
Liniers
0.76

allows per match

Dock Sud
1.06
Liniers
1.09

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Liniers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Liniers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
71%
Dock Sud or Liniers
70%
Draw or Liniers
59%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
17%
Liniers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
68%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
32%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
11%
Liniers 1+ goals
60%
Liniers 2+ goals
23%
Liniers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
59%
Liniers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Liniers away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Liniers defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Liniers attack 0.76 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dock Sud scores more
41%
level
30%
Liniers scores more
29%

Dock Sud at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 86% of Liniers’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Dock Sud score first in only 25% of matches
  • 67% of Dock Sud’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Dock Sud sit 7, Liniers 18 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sud
WDLWD
Liniers
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dock Sud vs Liniers — Match Preview

Dock Sud face Liniers on July 25, 2026 in this Primera B Metropolitana fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dock Sud host Liniers at Estadio de los Inmigrantes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.