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Dock Sud vs Ituzaingó — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sudadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
1/27/2021Primera CPrimera C · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio Centenario Dr. José Luis Meiszner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Dock Sud39%
×Draw32%
Ituzaingó29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.05
Ituzaingó
0.86

Dock Sud creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 94 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.22
Ituzaingó
0.95

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.77
Ituzaingó
0.88

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Ituzaingó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
71%
Dock Sud or Ituzaingó
68%
Draw or Ituzaingó
61%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
16%
Ituzaingó wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
65%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
28%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
9%
Ituzaingó 1+ goals
58%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
21%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
57%
Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.77 · 65 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.88 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.22 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ituzaingó attack 0.95 + Dock Sud defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dock Sud scores more
39%
level
32%
Ituzaingó scores more
29%

Dock Sud at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dock Sud vs Ituzaingó

Dock Sud beat Ituzaingó 1-0 in Primera C on January 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario Dr. José Luis Meiszner in Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires.