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Dock Sud vs Deportivo Armenio — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
Preview
20:00
Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
10/3/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 38Estadio de los Inmigrantes
Big match
36%
Dock Sud
model favours
36%30%34%

Deportivo Armenio are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Dock Sud36%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Armenio34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.06
Deportivo Armenio
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 126 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.18
Deportivo Armenio
1.00

allows per match

Dock Sud
1.06
Deportivo Armenio
0.94

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Deportivo Armenio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
66%
Dock Sud or Deportivo Armenio
70%
Draw or Deportivo Armenio
64%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
65%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
29%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Deportivo Armenio away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.00 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dock Sud scores more
36%
level
30%
Deportivo Armenio scores more
34%

Dock Sud at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dock Sud score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Deportivo Armenio’s matches
  • 67% of Dock Sud’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sud
WDLWD
Armenio
DWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dock Sud host Deportivo Armenio

October 3, 2026: Dock Sud take on Deportivo Armenio in Primera B Metropolitana. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dock Sud host Deportivo Armenio at Estadio de los Inmigrantes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.