Dock Sud 1–2 Deportivo Armenio: Result & Stats

Dock Sud

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Armenio

E. Díaz 28' (pen)

Matias Jeremias 90+6'

T. Jerez Sayago 44'

5/11/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 16Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Dock Sud36%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Armenio34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Armenio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.03

Dock Sud

1.06

Deportivo Armenio

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 126 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.18

Deportivo Armenio

1.00

allows per match

Dock Sud

1.06

Deportivo Armenio

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Deportivo Armenio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

66%

Dock Sud or Deportivo Armenio

70%

Draw or Deportivo Armenio

64%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

14%

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

65%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

29%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

9%

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Deportivo Armenio away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.00 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dock Sud scores more

36%

level

30%

Deportivo Armenio scores more

34%

Dock Sud at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

E. DíazPenalty

44'

T. Jerez Sayago

46'

Matias Jeremias← C. Rodríguez

60'

B. Benítez← M. Guzmán

60'

L. Villalva← V. Venetucci

68'

K. Cassoratti← J. González

73'

M. Macchione← N. Sica

76'

L. Ramos← T. Jerez Sayago

89'

R. Lobo← Alejandro Ávalos

90+6'

Matias Jeremias

Dock

Deportivo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Córdoba

60'▲B. Benítez←▼M. Guzmán

68'▲K. Cassoratti←▼J. González

89'▲R. Lobo←▼Alejandro Ávalos

Dock Sud substitutes

BenítezCassorattiLobo

Manager: C. Tula

46'▲Matias Jeremias←▼C. Rodríguez

60'▲L. Villalva←▼V. Venetucci

73'▲M. Macchione←▼N. Sica

76'▲L. Ramos←▼T. Jerez Sayago

Deportivo Armenio substitutes

JeremiasVillalvaMacchioneRamos