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Dock Sud vs Deportivo Armenio — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
0 – 1
Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
10/6/2018Primera CPrimera C · Round 9Estadio de los Inmigrantes (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dock Sud35%
×Draw33%
Deportivo Armenio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
0.92
Deportivo Armenio
0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Deportivo Armenio
0.95

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Deportivo Armenio
0.63

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Deportivo Armenio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
69%
Dock Sud or Deportivo Armenio
67%
Draw or Deportivo Armenio
65%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
13%
Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
60%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
23%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
7%
Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
57%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
53%
Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Deportivo Armenio away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.92

Deportivo Armenio attack 0.95 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Dock Sud scores more
35%
level
33%
Deportivo Armenio scores more
31%

Dock Sud at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dock Sud vs Deportivo Armenio

Deportivo Armenio beat Dock Sud 1-0 in Primera C on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes (Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires).