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Dock Sud vs Defensores Unidos — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
2 – 3
Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
12/15/2013Primera CPrimera C · Round 19Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dock Sud51%
×Draw27%
Defensores Unidos21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.42
Defensores Unidos
0.81

Dock Sud creates 75% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Defensores Unidos
0.86

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Defensores Unidos
1.64

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Defensores Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
79%
Dock Sud or Defensores Unidos
73%
Draw or Defensores Unidos
49%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
25%
Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
76%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
41%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
17%
Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
56%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
19%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
71%
Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Defensores Unidos away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Defensores Unidos defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Defensores Unidos attack 0.86 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dock Sud scores more
51%
level
27%
Defensores Unidos scores more
21%

Dock Sud at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Dock Sud 2–3 Defensores Unidos

Defensores Unidos beat Dock Sud 3-2 in Primera C on December 15, 2013.

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.