Dock Sud 2–2 Canuelas: Result & Stats

Dock Sud

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Canuelas

I. Álvarez 41'

G. Águila 6'

F. Krüger 36', 29'

5/28/2022

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 16Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Dock Sud43%

×Draw29%

Canuelas28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchCanuelas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.96

Dock Sud

1.25

Canuelas

0.96

Dock Sud creates 30% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 71 away

1.18

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.18

Canuelas

0.85

allows per match

Dock Sud

1.06

Canuelas

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Canuelas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Canuelas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

72%

Dock Sud or Canuelas

71%

Draw or Canuelas

57%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

19%

Canuelas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

71%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

36%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

13%

Canuelas 1+ goals

62%

Canuelas 2+ goals

25%

Canuelas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

60%

Canuelas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Canuelas away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Canuelas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Canuelas attack 0.85 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dock Sud scores more

43%

level

29%

Canuelas scores more

28%

Dock Sud at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

29'

36'

41'

46'

46'

L. Cariaga← G. Valenzuela

67'

S. Alegre← C. Acosta

74'

A. Morales← P. Córdoba

74'

G. Ottaviani← S. Sosa

79'

M. Giménez← T. Álvarez

89'

F. Maraschi← F. Krüger

Dock

Canuelas

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Águila

▼

Álvarez

Manager: G. De Lucca

46'▲M. Blanco←▼G. Águila

46'▲L. Cariaga←▼G. Valenzuela

79'▲M. Giménez←▼T. Álvarez

Dock Sud substitutes

BlancoCariagaGiménez

Manager: F. Zermatten

67'▲S. Alegre←▼C. Acosta

74'▲A. Morales←▼P. Córdoba

74'▲G. Ottaviani←▼S. Sosa

89'▲F. Maraschi←▼F. Krüger

Canuelas substitutes

AlegreMoralesOttavianiMaraschi