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Dock Sud vs Argentino Quilmes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
Preview
20:00
Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
9/19/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 36Estadio de los Inmigrantes
Big match
42%
Dock Sud
model favours
42%28%29%

Dock Sud score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Dock Sud42%
×Draw28%
Argentino Quilmes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.26
Argentino Quilmes
1.00

Dock Sud creates 26% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 124 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.18
Argentino Quilmes
0.95

allows per match

Dock Sud
1.06
Argentino Quilmes
1.34

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Argentino Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
71%
Dock Sud or Argentino Quilmes
72%
Draw or Argentino Quilmes
58%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
19%
Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
72%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
36%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
13%
Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
63%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
26%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
59%
Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Argentino Quilmes attack 0.95 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dock Sud scores more
42%
level
28%
Argentino Quilmes scores more
29%

Dock Sud at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Argentino Quilmes score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Argentino Quilmes’s matches
  • 67% of Dock Sud’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Dock Sud sit 7, Argentino Quilmes 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sud
WDLWD
Quilmes
DWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dock Sud face Argentino Quilmes (Primera B Metropolitana)

Primera B Metropolitana returns with Dock Sud hosting Argentino Quilmes. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dock Sud host Argentino Quilmes at Estadio de los Inmigrantes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.