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Dock Sud vs Argentino de Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
Preview
20:00
Argentino de Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
10/31/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 42Estadio de los Inmigrantes
Big match
37%
Dock Sud
model favours
37%30%33%

Argentino de Merlo score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Dock Sud37%
×Draw30%
Argentino de Merlo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.08
Argentino de Merlo
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 74 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.18
Argentino de Merlo
0.95

allows per match

Dock Sud
1.06
Argentino de Merlo
0.99

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Argentino de Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Argentino de Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
67%
Dock Sud or Argentino de Merlo
70%
Draw or Argentino de Merlo
63%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
15%
Argentino de Merlo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
66%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
29%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
10%
Argentino de Merlo 1+ goals
63%
Argentino de Merlo 2+ goals
26%
Argentino de Merlo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
53%
Argentino de Merlo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Argentino de Merlo away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Argentino de Merlo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Argentino de Merlo attack 0.95 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dock Sud scores more
37%
level
30%
Argentino de Merlo scores more
33%

Dock Sud at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dock Sud score first in only 25% of matches
  • 68% of Argentino de Merlo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Dock Sud’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sud
WDLWD
Merlo
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dock Sud host Argentino de Merlo

October 31, 2026: Dock Sud take on Argentino de Merlo in Primera B Metropolitana. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dock Sud host Argentino de Merlo at Estadio de los Inmigrantes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.