Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dock Sud vs Argentino de Merlo — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
3 – 1
Argentino de Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
L. Cariaga 80', 56'
S. Modon 3'
F. Magaldi 11'
1/13/2021Primera CPrimera C · Upper Table Round - 7Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Dock Sud42%
×Draw28%
Argentino de Merlo30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.27
Argentino de Merlo
1.04

Dock Sud creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Argentino de Merlo
1.33

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Argentino de Merlo
1.33

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Argentino de Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Argentino de Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
70%
Dock Sud or Argentino de Merlo
72%
Draw or Argentino de Merlo
58%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
19%
Argentino de Merlo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
72%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
36%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
14%
Argentino de Merlo 1+ goals
65%
Argentino de Merlo 2+ goals
28%
Argentino de Merlo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
58%
Argentino de Merlo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Argentino de Merlo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Argentino de Merlo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Argentino de Merlo attack 1.33 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dock Sud scores more
42%
level
28%
Argentino de Merlo scores more
30%

Dock Sud at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
S. Modon
11'
F. Magaldi
56'
L. Cariaga
80'
L. Cariaga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Dock Sud 3–1 Argentino de Merlo

Dock Sud beat Argentino de Merlo 3-1 in Primera C on January 13, 2021.

Goals: S. Modon (3'), F. Magaldi (11'), L. Cariaga (56', 80').

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.