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Dobrudzha vs Vihren — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
Preview
15:00
Vihren
Vihren
4/3/2027Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26Druzhba
42%
Dobrudzha
model favours
42%26%31%

Dobrudzha and Vihren have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dobrudzha42%
×Draw26%
Vihren31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.40
Vihren
1.17

Dobrudzha creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
Vihren
1.44

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
Vihren
1.38

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Vihren+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Vihren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
69%
Dobrudzha or Vihren
74%
Draw or Vihren
58%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
20%
Vihren wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
75%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
41%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
17%
Vihren 1+ goals
69%
Vihren 2+ goals
33%
Vihren 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
57%
Vihren (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Vihren away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Vihren defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Vihren attack 1.44 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
42%
level
26%
Vihren scores more
31%

Dobrudzha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Dobrudzha
LDDDL
Vihren
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobrudzha vs Vihren — Match Preview

Dobrudzha face Vihren on April 3, 2027 in this Second League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dobrudzha host Vihren at Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.