Dobrudzha 1–1 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Varna

R. Abushev 56'

Y. Andreev 64'

8/28/2021

Second League · Round 8Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Dobrudzha47%

×Draw26%

Spartak Varna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.07

Dobrudzha

1.51

Spartak Varna

1.07

Dobrudzha creates 41% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 46 away

1.43

creates per match

1.26

0.89

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Spartak Varna

1.26

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Spartak Varna

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

73%

Dobrudzha or Spartak Varna

74%

Draw or Spartak Varna

53%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

24%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

78%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

44%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

19%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

66%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

29%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

64%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Spartak Varna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.51

Spartak Varna attack 1.26 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

47%

level

26%

Spartak Varna scores more

27%

Dobrudzha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

27'

35'

40'

45+2'

45+2'

45+2'

46'

A. Dimitrov← M. Maksimov

46'

D. Nachev← V. Mirchev

47'

52'

56'

64'

68'

68'

A. Lentini← R. Abushev

73'

77'

81'

83'

85'

R. Zlatev← Tom

89'

G. Bozhilov← V. Mitev

89'

M. Yanakiev← Y. Andreev

Dobrudzha

Spartak

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Abushev

Manager: S. Slavov

46'▲A. Dimitrov←▼M. Maksimov

68'▲S. Mitev←▼D. Dimov

68'▲A. Lentini←▼R. Abushev

77'▲Y. Yunuz←▼K. Hristov

85'▲R. Zlatev←▼Tom

Dobrudzha substitutes

DimitrovMitevLentiniYunuzZlatevKovachevMinchev

Manager: V. Petrov

46'▲D. Nachev←▼V. Mirchev

73'▲N. Ivanov←▼M. Mehmed

89'▲G. Bozhilov←▼V. Mitev

89'▲M. Yanakiev←▼Y. Andreev

Spartak Varna substitutes

NachevIvanovBozhilovYanakievStefanovIbryamNistorov