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Dobrudzha vs Nesebar — Second League 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
Preview
16:00
Nesebar
Nesebar
2/20/2027Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Druzhba
59%
Dobrudzha
model favours
59%24%17%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dobrudzha59%
×Draw24%
Nesebar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
1.70
Nesebar
0.80

Dobrudzha creates 113% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
0.71

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.89
Nesebar
1.97

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
83%
Dobrudzha or Nesebar
76%
Draw or Nesebar
41%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
33%
Nesebar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
82%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
51%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
24%
Nesebar 1+ goals
55%
Nesebar 2+ goals
19%
Nesebar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
77%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Nesebar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Nesebar defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.70

Nesebar attack 0.71 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
59%
level
24%
Nesebar scores more
17%

Dobrudzha at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dobrudzha
LDDDL
Nesebar
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dobrudzha host Nesebar

February 20, 2027: Dobrudzha take on Nesebar in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dobrudzha host Nesebar at Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.