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Dobříš vs Aritma Praha — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
PST
13:30
Aritma Praha
Aritma Praha
3/14/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 17UMT Dobříš (Dobříš)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš32%
×Draw23%
Aritma Praha45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.50
Aritma Praha
1.83

Aritma Praha creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Aritma Praha
1.63

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Aritma Praha
1.38

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Aritma Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Aritma Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
55%
Dobříš or Aritma Praha
77%
Draw or Aritma Praha
68%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
15%
Aritma Praha wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
78%
Dobříš 2+ goals
44%
Dobříš 3+ goals
19%
Aritma Praha 1+ goals
84%
Aritma Praha 2+ goals
54%
Aritma Praha 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
41%
Aritma Praha (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Aritma Praha away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Aritma Praha defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aritma Praha attack 1.63 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dobříš scores more
32%
level
23%
Aritma Praha scores more
45%

Aritma Praha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aritma Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobříš face Aritma Praha (4. liga - Divizie B)

4. liga - Divizie B returns with Dobříš hosting Aritma Praha. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dobříš host Aritma Praha at UMT Dobříš (Dobříš).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.