Dob 1–2 Bilje: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Dob

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bilje

E. Tiganj 39'

Geancarlo Costa 61', 49'

10/12/2019

2. SNL · Round 13Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dob45%

×Draw23%

Bilje32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobExpected goals in this matchBilje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.51

Dob

1.81

Bilje

1.51

Dob creates 20% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 95 away

1.78

creates per match

1.24

1.78

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Dob

1.78

Bilje

1.24

allows per match

Dob

1.78

Bilje

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dob+0.00on par

Bilje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dob ↓

Bilje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Dob or draw

68%

Dob or Bilje

77%

Draw or Bilje

55%

Winning margin

Dob wins by 2+

24%

Bilje wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dob 1+ goals

84%

Dob 2+ goals

54%

Dob 3+ goals

27%

Bilje 1+ goals

78%

Bilje 2+ goals

44%

Bilje 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dob (draw refunded)

58%

Bilje (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dob at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

Bilje away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dob attack 1.78 + Bilje defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

Bilje attack 1.24 + Dob defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dob scores more

45%

level

23%

Bilje scores more

32%

Dob at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Ž. Avbelj← D. Jugovar

27'

D. Šturm← J. Štrukelj

39'

E. Tiganj

49'

Geancarlo Costa

61'

Geancarlo Costa

65'

A. Mladenovič← L. Gajič

80'

D. Zenković← A. Žinič

90'

T. Breganti← M. Kehinde

Dob

Bilje

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: N. Toševski

27'▲Ž. Avbelj←▼D. Jugovar

65'▲A. Mladenovič←▼L. Gajič

80'▲D. Zenković←▼A. Žinič

Dob substitutes

AvbeljMladenovičZenkovićČretnikFuntekLevecZupančič

Manager: S. Valentinčič

27'▲D. Šturm←▼J. Štrukelj

90'▲T. Breganti←▼M. Kehinde

Bilje substitutes

ŠturmBregantiPuhalićZuljanZagomilšekCvek

Dob 1 – 2 Bilje

Bilje beat Dob 2-1 in 2. SNL on October 12, 2019.

Goals: E. Tiganj (39'), Geancarlo Costa (49', 61').

The match was played at Športni park in Dob pri Domžalah.

Dob vs Bilje — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Dob 1 – 2 Bilje