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Dob vs Adria — 3. SNL - West 2020

Dob
Dob
Preview
15:00
Adria
Adria
10/17/20263. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 10
52%
Dob
model favours
52%23%25%

Dob and Adria have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dob52%
×Draw23%
Adria25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dob
1.84
Adria
1.22

Dob creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dob
2.46
Adria
1.44

allows per match

Dob
1.00
Adria
1.22

finishing

Dob+0.00on par
Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dob ↓

Adria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dob or draw
75%
Dob or Adria
77%
Draw or Adria
48%

Winning margin

Dob wins by 2+
29%
Adria wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dob 1+ goals
84%
Dob 2+ goals
55%
Dob 3+ goals
28%
Adria 1+ goals
70%
Adria 2+ goals
34%
Adria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dob (draw refunded)
67%
Adria (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dob at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dob attack 2.46 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.84

Adria attack 1.44 + Dob defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dob scores more
52%
level
23%
Adria scores more
25%

Dob at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Dob
DDLLW
Adria
LLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dob face Adria (3. SNL - West)

3. SNL - West returns with Dob hosting Adria. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.