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Dnipro-1 vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2026

Dnipro-1
Dnipro-1
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
O. Nazarenko 22'
V. Tsygankov 43'
V. Adamyuk 34' (OG)
10/31/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dnipro-133%
×Draw24%
Dynamo Kyiv43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dnipro-1
1.39
Dynamo Kyiv
1.64

Dynamo Kyiv creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dnipro-1
1.82
Dynamo Kyiv
2.27

allows per match

Dnipro-1
1.01
Dynamo Kyiv
0.95

finishing

Dnipro-1+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dnipro-1 ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dnipro-1 or draw
57%
Dnipro-1 or Dynamo Kyiv
76%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
67%

Winning margin

Dnipro-1 wins by 2+
15%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dnipro-1 1+ goals
75%
Dnipro-1 2+ goals
40%
Dnipro-1 3+ goals
16%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
49%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dnipro-1 (draw refunded)
43%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dnipro-1 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.01 · 67 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dnipro-1 attack 1.82 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Dnipro-1 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dnipro-1 scores more
33%
level
24%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
43%

Dynamo Kyiv at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
O. Nazarenko↳ I. Kogut
34'
V. AdamyukOwn goal
43'
V. Tsygankov↳ V. Buyalskyi
50'
Danylo Ihnatenko
55'
Vitaliy Buyalskyi
63'
O. Chychykov← F. Di Franco
63'
O. Khoblenko← A. Dovbyk
63'
A. Batagov← I. Kogut
63'
G. Rodrigues← B. Verbič
72'
S. Kravchenko← D. Ignatenko
72'
B. Lednev← V. Buyalskyi
77'
Oleksandr Nazarenko
80'
D. Korkishko← O. Nazarenko
85'
S. Sydorchuk← V. Shepelev
87'
Tomasz Kędziora
90'
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
90'
Denys Popov

Possession

47%Dnipro-1

Shots

4Dnipro-1

Statistics

Dnipro-1Dynamo
Overview
47%Possession53%
4Total Shots5
0Corners8
21Fouls14
Shots
4Total Shots5
2On Target2
2Off Target3
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Premier League: Dnipro-1 1–2 Dynamo Kyiv

Dynamo Kyiv beat Dnipro-1 2-1 in Premier League on October 31, 2020.

Goals: O. Nazarenko (22'), V. Adamyuk (34' o.g.), V. Tsygankov (43').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 4.

The match was played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Kiev.