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Djurgården W vs Rosengård W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Djurgården W
Djurgården W
Preview
12:00
Rosengård W
Rosengård W
9/5/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 17Stockholms Olympiastadion
Big match
54%
Rosengård W
model favours
23%22%54%

Djurgården W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Djurgården W23%
×Draw22%
Rosengård W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgården W
1.17
Rosengård W
1.89

Rosengård W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Djurgården W
1.43
Rosengård W
2.27

allows per match

Djurgården W
1.51
Rosengård W
0.90

finishing

Djurgården W+0.00on par
Rosengård W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Rosengård W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw
46%
Djurgården W or Rosengård W
78%
Draw or Rosengård W
77%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+
9%
Rosengård W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals
69%
Djurgården W 2+ goals
33%
Djurgården W 3+ goals
11%
Rosengård W 1+ goals
85%
Rosengård W 2+ goals
56%
Rosengård W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)
30%
Rosengård W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.51 · 79 matches

Rosengård W away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.43 + Rosengård W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rosengård W attack 2.27 + Djurgården W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Djurgården W scores more
23%
level
22%
Rosengård W scores more
54%

Rosengård W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rosengård W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rosengård W score first in only 9% of matches
  • Style contrast — Djurgården W play Defensively solid, Rosengård W Attack-heavy
  • Djurgården W fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.8 expected)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Djurgården W
Defensively solid
Rosengård W
Attack-heavy
53%Possession55%
78%Pass accuracy81%
12.6Shots16.5
1.75xGBiggest gap2.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Djurgården WRosengård W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Djurgården W
2
Draws
6
Rosengård W
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 60%
1–42–12–20–30–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LLLDW
W
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Djurgården W face Rosengård W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with Djurgården W hosting Rosengård W. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Djurgården W host Rosengård W at Stockholms Olympiastadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.