Djurgården W vs Piteå W: Preview & Prediction

Djurgården W

Preview

12:00

Piteå W

10/18/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 22Stockholms Olympiastadion

Big match

41%

Djurgården W

model favours

41%26%33%

Djurgården W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Djurgården W41%

×Draw26%

Piteå W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgården WExpected goals in this matchPiteå W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.25

Djurgården W

1.42

Piteå W

1.25

Djurgården W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

1.43

creates per match

1.00

1.51

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Djurgården W

1.43

Piteå W

1.00

allows per match

Djurgården W

1.51

Piteå W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgården W+0.00on par

Piteå W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Piteå W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw

67%

Djurgården W or Piteå W

74%

Draw or Piteå W

59%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+

19%

Piteå W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals

76%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

41%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

17%

Piteå W 1+ goals

71%

Piteå W 2+ goals

36%

Piteå W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

55%

Piteå W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.51 · 79 matches

Piteå W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.43 + Piteå W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Piteå W attack 1.00 + Djurgården W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Djurgården W scores more

41%

level

26%

Piteå W scores more

33%

Djurgården W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Djurgården W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Piteå W score first in only 15% of matches
Djurgården W win just 18% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
Style contrast — Djurgården W play Defensively solid, Piteå W Direct / counter-attacking
Piteå W fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.5 expected)