Djurgården W 1–3 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Djurgården W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Häcken W

T. Lindwall 6'

M. Gejl 90'

E. Rubensson 81'

P. Hammarlund 62'

11/5/2022

Damallsvenskan · Round 26Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Djurgården W31%

×Draw23%

Häcken W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgården WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.81

Djurgården W

1.44

Häcken W

1.81

Häcken W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.91

creates per match

2.30

1.33

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Djurgården W

1.91

Häcken W

2.30

allows per match

Djurgården W

1.33

Häcken W

0.97

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.67scores less than expected

finishing

Djurgården W-0.24scores less

Häcken W-0.67scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgården W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Djurgården W or draw

54%

Djurgården W or Häcken W

77%

Draw or Häcken W

69%

Winning margin

Djurgården W wins by 2+

14%

Häcken W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Djurgården W 1+ goals

76%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

42%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

18%

Häcken W 1+ goals

84%

Häcken W 2+ goals

54%

Häcken W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

40%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgården W at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Häcken W away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgården W attack 1.91 + Häcken W defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.44

Häcken W attack 2.30 + Djurgården W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Djurgården W scores more

31%

level

23%

Häcken W scores more

46%

Häcken W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

T. Lindwall↳ E. Hed

46'

M. Johansson← M. Gejl

62'

P. Hammarlund

81'

E. Rubensson

86'

L. Motlhalo← S. Lilja-Vidlund

86'

H. Wijk← E. Nelhage

86'

N. Lilja← F. Musolo Mawete

86'

S. Olai← A. Bergstrom

90'

M. Gejl

90+2'

P. Hammarlund← E. Madril

90+2'

A. Csiki← D. Zeller

Djurgården

Häcken

52

3

6

14

16

10

⚽

17

22

20

11

⚽

12

30

20

14

6

21

22

8

2

A

Hed

11

Motlhalo

10

⚽

Lindwall

16

Johansson

Manager: M. Pålsson

86'▲L. Motlhalo←▼S. Lilja-Vidlund

86'▲N. Lilja←▼F. Musolo Mawete

86'▲S. Olai←▼A. Bergstrom

Djurgården W substitutes

17Lilja-Vidlund9Mawete18Bergström5Walentowicz12Wieder15Björklund19Lundin

Manager: R. Vilahamn

46'▲M. Johansson←▼M. Gejl

86'▲H. Wijk←▼E. Nelhage

90+2'▲P. Hammarlund←▼E. Madril

90+2'▲A. Csiki←▼D. Zeller

Häcken W substitutes

29Jensen19Junttila-Nelhage7Zeller25Madril1Jansson23Hegerberg27Abdulle

Damallsvenskan: Djurgården W 1–3 Häcken W

Häcken W beat Djurgården W 3-1 in Damallsvenskan on November 5, 2022.

Goals: T. Lindwall (6'), P. Hammarlund (62'), E. Rubensson (81'), M. Gejl (90').

The match was played at Stockholms Olympiastadion in Stockholm.

Djurgården W vs Häcken W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: Djurgården W 1–3 Häcken W